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Eric P. Kaufmann
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Eric Kaufmann
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Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?: Demography and Politics in the Twenty-first Century ペーパーバック – 2011/4/19

英語版 Eric Kaufmann (著)
5つ星のうち4.2 28
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Dawkins and Hitchens have convinced many western intellectuals that secularism is the way forward. But most people don't read their books before deciding whether to be religious. Instead, they inherit their faith from their parents, who often innoculate them against the elegant arguments of secularists. And what no one has noticed is that far from declining, the religious are expanding their share of the population: in fact, the more religious people are, the more children they have. The cumulative effect of immigration from religious countries, and religious fertility will be to reverse the secularisation process in the West. Not only will the religious eventually triumph over the non-religious, but it is those who are the most extreme in their beliefs who have the largest families.

Within Judaism, the Ultra-Orthodox may achieve majority status over their liberal counterparts by mid-century. Islamist Muslims have won the culture war in much of the Muslim world, and their success provides a glimpse of what awaits the Christian West and Israel. Based on a wealth of demographic research, considering questions of multiculturalism and terrorism, Kaufmann examines the implications of the decline in liberal secularism as religious conservatism rises - and what this means for the future of western modernity.
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  1. 本の長さ
    320ページ
  2. 言語
    英語
  3. 出版社
    Profile Books Ltd
  4. 発売日
    2011/4/19
  5. 寸法
    15.24 x 2.54 x 22.86 cm
  6. ISBN-10
    1846681448
  7. ISBN-13
    978-1846681448
  8. すべての詳細を表示
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商品の説明

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With a suitably global sweep, [Kaufmann's] analysis takes in the history of US Christian movements, the radical disputes within Islam and the increasing ultra-orthodoxy spreading across Israel. He avoids falling into any nasty traps and this remains a provocative and well-informed addition to the debate. -- Robert Murphy ― Metro Published On: 2010-03-31

Kaufmann is controversial, highly informative and thought provoking. A not-to-be-missed contribution to one of the most pressing and complex debates of modern time. -- Michal Boncza ― Morning Star Published On: 2010-04-19

Authoritative and fascinating ... we must all hope that for all his research and brilliance, Eric Kaufmann joins the Bergers and Ehrlichs. ― Literary Review

sobering and controversial ― Financial Times Published On: 2010-11-27

著者について

Eric Kaufmann, an American academic, is currently Reader in Politics at Birkbeck College, University of London. In 2008-9, he was a Fellow at the Belfer Center, Harvard University. He is a frequent contributor toProspect and other publications.

登録情報

  • 出版社 ‏ : ‎ Profile Books Ltd; Main版 (2011/4/19)
  • 発売日 ‏ : ‎ 2011/4/19
  • 言語 ‏ : ‎ 英語
  • ペーパーバック ‏ : ‎ 320ページ
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 1846681448
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-1846681448
  • 寸法 ‏ : ‎ 15.24 x 2.54 x 22.86 cm
  • カスタマーレビュー:
    5つ星のうち4.2 28

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Tanler
5つ星のうち4.0 The Impact of Religious Communities on Politics
2019年8月13日にカナダでレビュー済み
Amazonで購入
Although somewhat dated, Kaufmann foresaw that the growth of conservative religious communities in the US would have an increasing impact on the outcome of American elections and, at a certain point, they will cut across divisions of race, ethnicity and class. The role they played in the election of Donald Trump is often overlooked.
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Edward Brynes
5つ星のうち5.0 Yes but think very hard
2020年5月9日にアメリカ合衆国でレビュー済み
Amazonで購入
This book offers a convincing argument that certain sects generally considered “extremist” will overpower their moderate brethren, not in a Holy War, but simply by multiplying. The intellectual classes of these sects see fruitfulness as a way of pushing back against the dominant secular sociey. The author’s tone is calm and unrelentingly factual, to the point that many readers may feel overburdened with information.

Not much statistical argument is needed for the author to make a convincing case. The most important growth statistic relating to a population is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), the average number of children born to a woman. For a religious population, desertions weigh on the negative side of the balance. But “Fertility alone is not enough. The Children of God and the Family are two [recent] cults with exceptionally high fertility. The Family, surely the ego ideal of the Shakers, subscribe to the idea that God’s love takes erotic form and practice ritualized communal sex. But its free-love ethos and lack of clear boundaries with the rest of society proved its undoing. The second generation deserted in droves.” (p. 42)

Secularism, the general skepticism about religion and its claims, has been increasing in the West for hundreds of years. But for the conservative sects described in this book, secularism seems to provide a necessary boundary for them to push against and mark off their separation. Worldwide, birthrates after WW II have generally decreased, in a trend known as the Second Demographic Transition (SDT). Doctrinal moderateness generally spells extinction. This is the reason why so many conservative religious groups do not moderate either their beliefs or their fertility. They increase their numbers not by making converts, but by endogenous growth, which means marrying within the faith and having three, four, or more children who do not leave the sect because of the high social cohesion -- for a member, no social life exists outside of it. All of this is in agreement with an argument by Daniel Bell put forward in The Cultural Contradictions of Capitalism

In addition to the Mormons, there are the Hutterites, who have grown from a population of about 400 in the 1880s to 50,000 today; and the Mennonites, Amish and others who are part of a sect called Anabaptists who originated in the European reformation and migrated to the US in the nineteenth century. Their general social philosophy is modelled on the Apostles of the New Testament: “The whole body of believers was united in heart and soul. Not a man of them claimed any of his possessions as his own, but everything was held in common, while the apostles bore witness with great power to the Resurrection of the Lord Jesus.” (Acts 4:32) Hutterites and many other Anabaptists have a language of their own, the German spoken in the land of their origin.

Although the author’s principal interest is American religious conservatism, he also deals with Europe. Here the established faiths are divided into mainline and conservative: Calvinism in Holland and Lutheranism in Finland. They too grow endogenously. But there are recent denominations of American origin like evangelicals, Pentecostalists, and charismatics who do not conform so closely to the pattern. “In effect, Christianity seems to be retrenching: religious decline is taking place, but as the loosely attached fall away, they reveal a vital and growing core of fundamentalist energy. As elsewhere, the moderate middle is being squeezed out.” (p.159) Muslims in Europe are covered from a sociological point of view. Their TFR is well above native Europeans, although it is declining (as the native TFR is declining). The author discusses their poverty, unemployment, and criminality, but not heterodox religious beliefs. (This book appeared in 2010.)

The author provides an extensive discussion of the Jewish Haredim or ultra-Orthodox. They began as a reaction to secularization in Europe after the Enlightenment. Many of their customs marking their distinctiveness are of recent date, the nineteenth century. Shortly after Israel was established in 1948, few of them remained in Israel, from the Holocaust. In Israel they “were forced to beg cap-in-hand to the state.” But they gained prestige as the years went by, and today they are supported by the state in a comprehensive system that supports them in their official capacity as students (although with their high TFR they seem implausible). To many Israelis they are seen as representing a more authentic Judaism, while at the same time they are seen as socially parasitic. The author spends many amusing pages on how this highly visible cultural bloc compels businesses to withdraw ads -- for example, a picture of a dinosaur implies promotion of the theory of evolution, so that people feel compelled to take their point of view into account.

The last chapter is a meandering summary of trends and possible developments. The author sees a general “pronatalist” trend in world society, now that the dangers of possible demographic extinction are apparent if not real. Rather inconclusively he speculates about “secular religions” that might replace socialism and anarchism. He considers that there might be evolutionary advantages in religion, then ends with the following: “There is still too much smoke in the air for us to pick out the peaks and valleys of the emerging social order. This much seems certain: without an ideology to inspire social cohesion, fundamentalism cannot be stopped. The religious shall inherit the earth.”
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Martin Oliver
5つ星のうち5.0 Rewarding
2016年7月17日に英国でレビュー済み
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An excellent book. I fully encourage readers to note the review that has been left here on Amazon by Dr Michael Blume, an expert on the subject matter. As years go by, I feel this book is gaining in importance and relevance, and Mr Kaufman is more often being cited in news and media. A rewarding read.
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Raul Alvarez Prieto
5つ星のうち5.0 Demographics, Religion and Future.
2015年5月3日にスペインでレビュー済み
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An impressive book on demographics and its effects on societies, politics and power. Some light on world's next 50 years.
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Dr. Michael Blume
5つ星のうち5.0 A must-read for anyone interested in politics, religion, sciences
2010年4月19日にドイツでレビュー済み
Amazonで購入
Studying the (on average) higher fertility of religious populations from an evolutionary perspective for some years, I have been somewhat sceptical about applying such observations in the contemporary field of political analysis. But Eric Kaufmann did the job. Making clear his own, rather secular position, he is nevertheless avoiding biasses or polemics, but is informing the reader. He manages to do this by patiently combining available demographic data, historical descriptions and case studies on a wide range of populations as i.e. Haredim Jews in Israel, Mormons in the US, strong Calvinists in the Netherlands, Salafist movements in the Muslim world and many more. Although he is discussing projections and problems, Kaufmann doesn't fall into the trap of mindless alarmism, carefully weighing further options for secular und moderate religious movements, too. Although my interest started from the purely empirical and evolutionary side, I began to like the book for its political and philosophic clout in presenting tough questions and tentatively probing for new answers. For almost any reader, this will be a captivating and thought-provoking read and for scientists from different fields a chance to discuss, test and revise or expand sound observations and hypotheses.
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