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Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side Hardcover – Illustrated, 2 October 2018
Purchase options and add-ons
- Print length336 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherMarks, Howard
- Publication date2 October 2018
- Dimensions15.24 x 2.82 x 22.86 cm
- ISBN-101328479250
- ISBN-13978-1328479259
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From the Publisher
A Note to Readers from Howard Marks, author of Mastering the Market Cycle
Investors clearly could do much better if they knew what lies ahead. But they can’t. Few people can accurately predict what the future holds in store for the economy and markets, and fewer still know enough about these things to out-think and thus out-invest the general consensus of investors whose views are incorporated into – 'discounted by' – the market prices of securities. But we know economies and markets follow an up-and-down pattern called a cycle and, importantly, knowing where we currently stand with regard to the economic cycle and the market cycle can give us a better idea of what lies ahead. This is a process through which investors can get the odds on their side.
When the economy is just beginning to recover from a slowdown and the markets are picking themselves up off the floor after a bust, it’s highly likely that security prices haven’t been lifted to precarious levels by large doses of investor optimism.
Pleasant surprises are more likely to lie ahead than disappointments; investors will probably come to be persuaded of these things over time and thus become buyers; and their buying should cause security prices to rise. At such a point – when economies and markets are low in their cycles – good things are more likely to lie ahead than bad things.
Since security prices aren’t inflated, buying at that point is likely to make for significant appreciation and entail little risk.
And on the contrary, when the recovery and bull market have been rolling for a while, investors are likely to be feeling good, and their optimism is likely to be incorporated in security prices.
Thus prices may be at risky highs; disappointments are more likely to lie ahead than good news; and thus risk may be high and appreciation hard to come by. All these things mean that when we’re high in the cycle, the odds are against you. When others feel good and drive prices to highs, it’s time to cut risk and take some of your money off the table.
In all these things, the operative words are 'likely' and probable.' So while we can’t know what the future holds, we can have a better idea whether the wind is at our back or in our face. The best investors have a sense for where we stand in the cycle and thus whether it’s time to build more aggressiveness or more defensiveness into their portfolios. This book will teach you what cycles are, what causes their rise and fall, and thus how to tell what investment moves are most likely to succeed.
Product description
Review
"Howard Marks, among the world's most successful investment managers as well as an intellectual leader of the profession [has written a new book]. Mastering the Market Cycle is...wise...A careful reading can make us better investors and protect us from the all too frequent errors that ruin investment results."--Burton G. Malkiel, Wall Street Journal "Howard Marks's Mastering the Market Cycle is a must-read, because the cycles covered in this book are important and because Howard is one of the investing greats of his generation." --Ray Dalio, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Co-Chairman, Bridgewater Associates "I always say, 'There's no better teacher than history in determining the future.' Howard's book tells us how to learn from history . . . and thus get a better idea of what the future holds."--Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman, Berkshire Hathaway "While most investment professionals take the standard out - that 'you can't time the market' - in Mastering the Market Cycle Howard Marks, a living investment legend, takes the contrarian point of view that not only can you time markets, but it's imperative that you do so."--Bill Gurley, General Partner, Benchmark "Mastering the Market Cycle reveals how cycles not only coincide with, but also cause, financial market risk and opportunity. Written in plain English, Howard Marks's hard-earned wisdom will help readers tilt the odds in their favor."--Jeffrey Gundlach, Founder, DoubleLine Capital "If you're uncertain as to whether there will be a correction in the market - or if you think there's no reason to worry because 'it's different this time' - you have to read this book before you make a move." --Carl C. Icahn, Chairman, Icahn Enterprises Praise for Howard Marks's THE MOST IMPORTANT THING "When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they're the first thing I open and read. I always learn something, and that goes double for his book."--Warren Buffett, Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway --
About the Author
Product details
- Publisher : Marks, Howard; Illustrated edition (2 October 2018)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 336 pages
- ISBN-10 : 1328479250
- ISBN-13 : 978-1328479259
- Dimensions : 15.24 x 2.82 x 22.86 cm
- Best Sellers Rank: 46,598 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- 9 in Bond Investing
- 17 in Mutual Fund Investing
- 25 in Private Equity
- Customer Reviews:
About the author
Howard Marks is chairman and cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management, a
Los Angeles-based investment firm with $80 billion under management. He
holds a Bachelor's Degree in finance from the Wharton School and an MBA
in accounting and marketing from the University of Chicago.
Customer reviews
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Top reviews
Top reviews from Australia
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Mastering the Market Cycle is in my opinion invaluable - but definitely an intermediate level book, best to read after getting some of the basics down about economics and investing.
The premise of the book is basically making sense of the short and long term trends of market cycles, acknowledging that while you can't predict the future or time the market perfectly, you can adequately prepare and understand the process to better yourself.
While the book doesn't contact direct financial advise per se, the knowledge imparted is more than valuable and helps explain some of the major players (e.g. Warren Buffett's) strategies on the market.
1. The market always moves like a cycle and is on the way to extremes most of the time
2. Knowing where we stand in the cycle increases the odds for the bet of the next move
3. Exploit the extremes is the best we can hope for
The problem is extremes happen like once in a decade. You will need one of two full cycles to learn which takes ten or twenty years. When the next cycle comes, you will need enough money to invest which few non-professional investors can do.
Cash average may be the best we can do during which we can also learn to feel the cycle of the market. Be aggressive when the extremes come as Marks suggested.
Top reviews from other countries
A must have piece of literature art in the top shelf
Marks draws on his decades of experience as a successful investor to provide a comprehensive overview of market cycles, including the factors that drive them and the common mistakes that investors make during each phase of the cycle.
One of the things I appreciate about this book is that it is written in a clear, concise manner that is accessible to both novice and experienced investors. Marks uses real-world examples and analogies to illustrate his points, making complex concepts easy to understand.
The book is divided into three sections, each of which focuses on a different aspect of market cycles. The first section provides an overview of the concept of cycles, including the different phases and the drivers of each phase. The second section delves into the psychological and emotional factors that influence investor behavior during market cycles, including the role of greed and fear. The third section offers practical advice on how to invest during each phase of the cycle, including strategies for mitigating risk and capitalizing on opportunities.
Overall, I found "Mastering the Market Cycle" to be an insightful and thought-provoking read. Marks' wealth of experience and expertise shine through in every chapter, and his advice is grounded in sound principles that are backed by decades of market data. Whether you are a novice investor or a seasoned pro, this book is an invaluable resource that will help you navigate the ups and downs of financial markets with greater confidence and success.